It’s easy to view the Oilers losing in the playoffs a round earlier than last year and lament a missed opportunity. That opinion is perfectly justified.
Look at the remarkable season Connor McDavid had. Think of the personal-best numbers posted by all the high-end forwards. Consider the way Mattias Ekholm transformed the team after he was acquired.
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And there’s more: the second-half dominance (especially down the stretch), depth contributions not seen in forever, Stuart Skinner’s emergence and Evan Bouchard blossoming into an elite blueliner.
A Stanley Cup Final appearance there was for the taking, particularly after the defending champion Avalanche endured countless injuries and wound up bowing out in the first round.
It’s not hard to wonder what could have been after seeing the Golden Knights win the first three games of the Western Conference finals series against Dallas. That easily could have been the Oilers.
It’s entirely reasonable for everyone associated with the organization or with emotional capital in it to be devasted — to borrow GM Ken Holland’s word.
There’s nothing that can be done about that now, though. So, instead of focusing on what could have been, it’s time to think about what could be.
With the entire core slated to return, there’s still a real opportunity for the Oilers to end a Stanley Cup drought that dates to 1990. The second-round knockout hurts, but that shouldn’t impact the optimistic forecasts of this club for next season and the following one.
The Oilers have their top five forwards all signed. They have their best three blueliners set to come back. Both goaltenders are under contract, too, even if one of them is Jack Campbell — who had a disastrous season but is someone the organization is counting on to rebound.
Holland’s biggest priority this summer is getting Bouchard, a pending RFA, signed. After that, while proactivity would be ideal, he just has to look for ways to tweak the roster and not make mistakes.
For as good as the bottom six was, it won’t be the same come the fall — not with Derek Ryan, Nick Bjugstad, Mattias Janmark, Klim Kostin and Ryan McLeod all needing new contracts. McLeod is the only lock to return. The first three players are pending unrestricted free agents, whereas Kostin is an RFA with arbitration rights.
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Right wing and right defence need to be improved, and Kailer Yamamoto and Cody Ceci are potential options to be moved. But Holland can’t make change simply for change’s sake.
With money tight, there is no Zach Hyman-type player coming in free agency this summer. Nor is there an Evander Kane, though his signing last July didn’t upgrade the roster since was already an Oiler.
This year’s free agent class has options for the Oilers, particularly when it comes to middle-six wingers that might be affordable if Holland clears some space before July 1.
However, Holland can do much worse than keeping Yamamoto and Ceci in the fold. There’s something to be said about a bird in the hand.
Holland doesn’t have to load up his roster this summer if he doesn’t nab the ideal players he wants.
The Oilers aren’t expected to be in LTIR to start the season thanks to Oscar Klefbom and Mike Smith (and Ryan Murray) coming off the books. Holland and his staff can accrue cap space as the season progresses as a result. The more money they save along the way, the more room they’ll have before the trade deadline to acquire players like Ekholm (and Bjugstad) who can potentially serve as the missing pieces for a championship team.
That could be more be the more advantageous approach to get them over the hump next season or the one after. Because that’s all that matters.
The Oilers have two legitimate cracks to win the Stanley Cup — three if they’re lucky — before everything starts to change.
Leon Draisaitl’s contract is up in 2025, leaving just two more seasons at the bargain $8.5 million rate. McDavid’s deal ends a year later.
Draisaitl is going to get a hefty raise from whoever signs him, whether that’s the Oilers or another team. He’ll be 30 a couple weeks into the first season of that new contract, too.
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McDavid can command the maximum 20 percent allowable to a single player under the collective bargaining agreement if he so chooses. He’s clearly entitled to that.
It’s impossible to forecast the composition of any team with certainty too far into the future. The Oilers can still be in the conversation as contenders. But barring something unforeseen, the Oilers will be on the downslope — even if both superstars return.
Kane and Ekholm will be eligible for free agency. Hyman, Darnell Nurse and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins will be three years older. So will Campbell, who will still be under contract whether in Edmonton or elsewhere with assets ditched along the way.
The reality is all those players were brought in with the current Draisaitl-and-McDavid contracts timeline in mind, though. And that means the time to win is now.
The Oilers have already used up two of their four- or five-year window and have just three series victories to their credit. That’s solid progress considering the standard set by this team in this century.
It’s also nowhere close to being good enough for this group — not with this core.
The good news is that two or three seasons remain. It’s not a big timeframe, but it’s something.
There’s no reason why the Oilers can’t be among a handful of the NHL’s elite teams for that period. That doesn’t guarantee them anything, of course, but it’s exactly where they should be in their arc with McDavid and Draisaitl.
That’s what everyone needs to start focusing on now. The next 24 or 36 months will define this promising era of the Oilers.
The real devastation will come if they don’t have that long-awaited Cup by the time McDavid’s current contract expires.
(Photo: Paul Swanson / NHLI via Getty Images)
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